[ 2005 15 ] [2005 2 4 ] 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2012 10 12 2012 9 30 ........................................................................................................................................... 1 ........................................................................................................................................... 1 ............................................................................................................................... 4 ............................................................................................................................. 12 ......................................................................................................................... 15 ............................................................................................. 27 ......................................................................................................... 27 ......................................................................... 33 ............................................................................................................................. 34 ............................................................................................................................. 44 ......................................................................................................................... 45 ................................................................................................................. 46 ................................................................................................................. 48 ............................................................................................................. 49 ............................................................................................................. 51 ................................................................................................................. 52 ............................................................................................................................. 55 ............................................................................................................. 57 ......................................................................................................... 58 ................................................................................................. 66 ............................................................................................. 71 ............................................................................................................. 72 ..................................................................................... 72 ......................................................................................................................... 72 1  / 2  ( ) 3 T 3  99 20 2004 5 12 4  99 20 021 3879 4999 250,000,000 1. 5 6 7 5. 8 2003 2007 2007 6 2008 6 2008 11 2009 6 16 2009 5 2009 9 8  2005 4 8 2005 10 11 2005 10 12 2006 2 14 2006 2 14 2008 11 28 6. A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 9  9 9 , , , , , 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 2 1 2 3 4 10 3 1 2 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 11 12 13 14 1. 15 2. 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25  1515 2202-2207 1515 2202-2207 021-5298 5566 021-5298 5577 26  991,196,238.02 164,284.71 7,491 991,196,238.02 164,284.71 991,360,522.73 1 27 2 7 3 7 4 3 1 1 1.00 2 3 4 3 1 5 3 1,000 1,000 100 100 100 28 1 2 3 T 1 T 2 1.00 1 0 = 0.01 2 3 2 0 29  = × = × + 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 30 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 2 3 1 1 10% 2 1 2 10% 31  1 1 1 1 3 , , 3 20 1 2 T 1 T 2 3 T 1 4 3 32 1 “ ” 2 “ ” 3 “ ” 5 33  T T+1 T+3 ( ) 1 2 1 1 3 397 397 4 1 1 5 1 1 34  6 ( Money-supply Expectations Effect) (Fisher Effect) (Flow of Funds) / / 35 5) 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 36  2008 6 1 1 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 397 AAA 8) 9) 2 1 37  10% 2 30% 5% 3 40% 4 ∑ × ∑ × ∑ × 38  60 39 1 1 7,760,984,188.25 40.92 7,760,984,188.25 40.92 - - 2 8,629,900,000.00 45.50 - - 3 2,499,557,010.81 13.18 4 74,886,622.94 0.39 5 18,965,327,822.00 100.00 2 - 1 - - - 2 - - 20 20% 3 1 40  120 2 % 1 30 56.85 - 397 - - 2 30 ( ) 60 16.44 - 397 2.11 - 3 60 ( ) 90 11.02 - 397 - - 4 90 ( ) 180 1.32 - 397 - - 5 180 ( ) 397 14.13 - 397 - - 99.77 - 41  4 1 1 - - 2 3,791,774,574.02 20.01 3 3,257,361,957.88 17.19 3,257,361,957.88 17.19 4 - - 5 711,847,656.35 3.76 6 - - 7 - - 8 7,760,984,188.25 40.96 9 400,624,008.04 2.11 2 ( ) 1 120228 12 28 6,500,000 650,000,010.20 3.43 2 1101088 11 88 6,000,000 597,463,460.68 3.15 3 1101096 11 96 6,000,000 595,921,641.00 3.15 4 1101098 11 98 6,000,000 595,576,985.08 3.14 5 1101086 11 86 5,800,000 577,911,853.14 3.05 6 1101082 11 82 5,500,000 548,761,141.63 2.90 7 041251015 12 CP001 5,200,000 521,571,014.65 2.75 42 8 1101094 11 94 5,000,000 496,952,678.33 2.62 9 120218 12 18 4,000,000 401,247,125.68 2.12 10 110206 11 06 4,000,000 400,624,008.04 2.11 5 0.25( )-0.5% 0 0.1244% -0.0316% 0.0590% 6 7 2 397 397 20% 3 4 1 - 2 12,655,087.99 3 62,225,734.95 43  4 5,800.00 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 74,886,622.94 1.193 -0.53 0.02 A 0.6628% 0.0251% 0.0000% 2005/4/13 2% 04% 51% 2005/12/31 1.193 -0.35 0.03 B 0.8377% 0.0307% 0.0000% 2% 55% 07% 1.709 -0.23 0.02 A 1.4773% 0.0274% 0.0002% 2006/1/1 3% 20% 72% 2006/12/31 1.709 0.010 0.03 B 1.7199% 0.0313% 0.0002% 3% 6% 11% 2.444 0.882 0.13 A 3.3267% 0.1387% 0.0017% 2007/1/1 1% 6% 70% 2007/12/31 2.444 1.130 0.13 B 3.5741% 0.1410% 0.0017% 1% 0% 93% 2.426 0.243 0.05 A 2.6698% 0.0568% 0.0027% 2008/1/1 4% 4% 41% 2008/12/31 2.426 0.489 0.05 B 2.9159% 0.0608% 0.0027% 4% 5% 81% 44  0.7748% 0.0302% 1.350 0.0000% -0.57 0.03 A 2009/1/1 0% 52% 02% 2009/12/31 1.0174% 0.0321% 1.350 0.0000% -0.33 0.03 B 0% 26% 21% 1.350 -0.14 0.03 A 1.2029% 0.0326% 0.0000% 2010/1/1 0% 71% 26% 2010/12/31 1.350 0.096 0.03 B 1.4463% 0.0360% 0.0000% 0% 3% 60% 1.459 1.124 0.06 A 2.5841% 0.0618% 0.0001% 2011/1/1 7% 4% 17% 2011/12/31 1.459 1.370 0.06 B 2.8303% 0.0657% 0.0001% 7% 6% 56% 0.736 0.639 0.06 A 1.3765% 0.0653% 0.0001% 2012/1/1 7% 8% 52% 2012/6/30 0.736 0.760 0.07 B 1.4975% 0.0708% 0.0001% 7% 8% 07% 2.0456% 0.0011% 1.077 0.0002% 0.968 0.00 A 2012/1/1 5% 1% 09% 2012/9/30 2.2288% 0.0011% 1.077 0.0002% 1.151 0.00 B 5% 3% 09% ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 45 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 0.5% “ 46 ” 1 5 6 1 2 3. 4 1 2 0.5% 3 4 5 6 1 4 5 47 2 48 1 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 2 1 0.33% H E× ÷ H E 3 49 2 1 0.10% H E× ÷ H E 1 3 3 4 1 4 7 3 50 4 1 2 5 1 2 1 1 12 31 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 51 2 3 5 , , 1 , 3 , 2 3 4 , 6 45 , 15 52  , , 1 90 , , 2 60 , 3 15 , 2 , , 2 , , , : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 53  9 1 50% 10 1 30% 11 12 13 , 14 15 16 17 0.5% 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 , , , , , 54  , , ( ) 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) 2 3 55 4 5 6 7 8 60 9 ( ) 1 56 2 1 2 6 3 6 4 1 1 30 2 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 57  7 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 3 5 6 7 15 58 2. 2) 59 1) 2) 3) 15) 18) 60 61 1. 62 2. 6 3. 63 5. 1) 2) 4) 64 65 1. 99 20 99 20 200120 2004 5 12 [2004]56 25000 2. 66 1. 1) 2) , , 3) 2. 1) 2) , , 67 3) 3. 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 1 “ ” 2 2 2 3 68 3 1 2 3 4 4 1 2 3 5 1 2 6 1 2 7 69 8 ( ) 1 2 70  1 2 3 4 1. 2. 71  021 3879 4888 www.51fund.com ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 72 73